Real output of our scorer on the Nebius release. Lines shown:8/16. Not a price target.
What you get
Five tools we use every day, opened up.
We built these to make our own calls. Each one runs on a schedule, keeps its history and explains itself.
01
Live earnings-call scoring
Every statement on the call that moves a driver, scored the moment it is said: surprise against what was expected, in dollars per share, hard or soft, with the exact quote.
CRWV17:34:512026-11-10High
<$5B incremental parent-level capital needed through 2027; rest via DDTL/ABS, prepay, EBITDA
Surprise+$0.50/shrange$0.00 … +$1.50SoftLow confidence: no baseline
“Accounting for these sources, we expect to raise less than $5 billion in incremental parent-level capital through 2027.”
Puts a ceiling on unsecured debt and equity/ATM dilution through 2027 despite ~$37–39B/yr capex; eases dilution overhang
Verify next:Whether the <$5B includes the new ~$4.2B converts and ATM (35M sh) or comes on top; split of equity vs debt; start date of 'through 2027'
45statements flagged · 5highCRWV · 2026-11-10
17:00 ETCall ends18:03
02
Price targets, three ways
Twelve-month targets built by an analyst agent and an industry-specialist agent: a bull, a base and a bear case, each with its probability and the observable that would change it.
Bull—
Base—
Bear—
NBISfirst note in preparation
03
Positioning monitors
Is anyone positioning ahead of the news? Fourteen crude-oil signals, each judged against a written rule. A flag means “look closer”, never “someone knows”.
Puts richening vs calls (WTI 25Δ risk reversal): Paused
Brent option skew: No data
WTI options volume (LO monthly): Paused
OTM put builds that lean bought (WTI): Paused
WTI futures volume: Normal
Brent (NYMEX BZ) futures volume: Normal
Brent prompt spread — backwardation collapsing?: Normal
WTI prompt spread — backwardation collapsing?: Normal
Brent–WTI (same month) — backwardation collapsing?: Normal
Europe cross-check (TTF, wheat, EU oil majors): Normal
Prediction markets: peace odds jump: Normal
3Paused1No data9Normal1Watch
Crude oil · 0flags, 1watch · 2026-11-11
04
Desk views, kept honest
The forward views of the big sell-side desks, read every morning. A view is kept only if its quote is in the source and it names an asset and a direction. Each one is scored later against what happened.
Volatility▲ 2
Nasdaq / tech▲ 1▼ 1
S&P 500▼ 2
China equities▲ 1
Views kept8/19 · 2026-11-12
05
Inflation nowcast
Our own model of the next US consumer price print, rebuilt every day as prices arrive, with each component's share of the move.
All items+0.10%
Core+0.21%
Gasoline−0.09
Owners' rent+0.08
Other core items+0.07
Utility gas−0.02
Restaurants+0.02
Used cars−0.02
Month on month2026-11 · ±0.1 · built2026-11-11
Method
How the scoring works. All of it.
A score you cannot check is an opinion. So every number carries its working.
1
Write down the expectation first
Before the release, each price driver gets a benchmark: consensus, the company's prior guidance or the current run-rate, with its source and the time it was logged. No benchmark means the score is marked low confidence.
2
Listen and extract
The live call is transcribed on our own machines. An analyst model pulls out every statement that moves a driver, with the exact quote and the time it was said.
3
Convert the gap to dollars per share
Gap = stated minus expected. It is valued with the multiple that fits that line (sales, EBITDA, cost of debt), divided by the share count and rounded to $0.05, with a low-to-high range.
4
Separate hard from soft
Hard means a number the company reported or guided. Soft means forward talk, run-rate maths or a missing baseline. They are scored side by side and never blended out of sight.
5
Count each dollar once
If a line is already valued in another row, it scores $0 and says why. A headline beat made of one-off revenue does not count twice.
Sample output
Real output, as the desk sees it.
Unedited lines from this week, with their dates. Nothing here was written for the website. Desk output is written in English.
Release scorecard · CoreWeave (CRWV)
2026-11-10
Line
Company said
Benchmark
Score, $/share
Range
Type
Q3 revenue
$3,661M
Consensus
+$1.15
+$0.30 … +$1.40
Hard
Q3 adj operating income
$379M (10% margin)
Prior guidance
+$2.10
+$1.00 … +$2.11
Hard
FY26 revenue guide
$13.0-13.3B
Consensus
+$1.45
+$0.70 … +$1.44
Hard
FY26 capex guide
$37-39B
Prior guidance
−$1.80
−$1.79 … −$0.90
Hard
Q4 interest expense guide
$1.05-1.15B
Run-rate
−$2.85
−$2.83 … −$1.40
Soft
Show the method line for each score
Q3 revenue0.121B x 5.4 EV/Sales = $0.65B / 558M. One-quarter beat, so lo assumes it is worth less. Part of the FY26 guide raise; the FY26 row scores only the rest
Q3 adj operating income149M x 7.9 EV/EBITDA = $1.18B / 558M. One quarter, so lo is about half. Overlaps the revenue rows; the aggregate should be capped
FY26 revenue guideScores only the 0.149B left after the Q3 beat (0.27 - 0.121): x 5.4 = $0.80B / 558M. Barely above the 2% band
FY26 capex guide-$1.0B extra debt / 558M. hi assumes half is funded by customer prepayments
Q4 interest expense guide-200M x 7.9 = -$1.58B / 558M. Run-rate proxy; the market likely priced some rise in, so hi is halved. Low confidence
Price-target note · Nebius Group (NBIS)
In preparation
12-month target—Probability-weighted
Bull—value @ probability
Base—value @ probability
Bear—value @ probability
InputsQ3 2026 release and call, 2026-11-12
ModelRevenue build, margins, capex and financing, share count, net debt
ValuationDCF and forward multiples against named peers
Review triggerA dated event and the threshold we will check
Every target is kept after it is published and checked against what happened. Targets are model outputs with stated odds; they can be wrong, and the note says where.
Coverage
What we cover today.
Small on purpose, and growing by request. Desk members can ask us to add a name.
Area
Name
What runs
Latest
Equities · AI compute
Nebius Group (NBIS)
Release and call scoring · price-target note in preparation
2026-11-12
Equities · AI compute
CoreWeave (CRWV)
Release and call scoring · post-call summary
2026-11-10
Macro · United States
Consumer prices (CPI)
Daily nowcast of the monthly print, by component
2026-11-11
Commodities
Crude oil (WTI, Brent)
Positioning monitor, daily. Signals:14
2026-11-11
Cross-asset
Sell-side desk views
Morning digest; every view scored later
2026-11-12
Access
Three ways in.
Private beta. Tell us which tier fits and we will reply by email.